A tale as old as time, the (expert-) founder that sees a need in the market, raises a small seed round from people around them and then builds a product that…
… gets crickets.
The reason?
They were a builder. A builder that was so in love with their solution that they didn’t validate anything! No conversations with customers, no commitments, no validation on “how to solve the problem”, no insights on their willingness to pay.
Yikes!
Now, I don’t want it to come across like I think less of founders that are like this! I love builders with enthusiasm. I want you to build! But I also want you to win, to make a lot of sales and — if that’s your cup of tea — to exit with a few millions in your bank account.
How to make your product a certified banger:
- Who is really in pain? (Painkillers vs. vitamins)
- Willingness to pay
- The mom test
- Form factors (problem-solution fit)
- Perceived value (and the cost 2 value trade-off)
- Getting paid before you build
- On risk
- In conclusion
Who is really in pain? (Painkillers vs. vitamins)
Now imagine you have an idea, or in this case a specific expertise, and you think you’ve found the big idea — the thing you’re (uniquely) qualified for. No one can do it better than you, or at least no-one has tried what you’re about to do.
(Note: while that is often a signal in itself, I do think that — in a world where power abhors a vacuum1 — greenfield opportunities still exist.)
Then it follows that you want to start selling it! That is of course the nature of business: if you have no buyers, then you have no business. So then who is your buyer!?
Our buyer?
© Founders who are about to lose all of their investors’ money
Everyone who has this problem of course!
When deciding who you’ll target first, you really want to identify for whom your solution will be a painkiller and not just a vitamin.
A great rule of thumb is to make a long list of potential buyer types and to then plot them on this 2:2 matrix where one axis is “is this problem something that is a hard cost to them” and the other being “the number of buyers in the market”.
A great rule of thumb is to make a long list of potential buyer types and to then plot them on this 2:2 matrix where one axis is “is this problem something that is a hard cost to them” and the other being “the number of buyers in the market”
While some might argue that “missed opportunity” might be a good replacement for the “hard cost”-axis, I still prefer hard cost.
Presenting a new opportunity to a cold buyer means that the buyer has to “trust” you. And it’s easier to trust you when you say you’re solving an issue they know and understand, rather than trying to try to comprehend some novel “opportunity”.
Willingness to pay
Now, you’ll notice that the diagram doesn’t actually say that if you don’t have a lot of buyers in the market, it necessarily means it’s a bad opportunity. As long as the need is high, it might still work!
It all depends on our ICP’s “willingness to pay”, if you have a problem that’s costing you a million every year, it makes sense to spend 50K to get a fix in place.
And there are even some problems where buyers have little to no price-sensitivity!
People who’re in bad health most will spend any amount to feel better. Likewise, the businessman who wants to be recognized for his great financial achievements buys a 150ft yacht or a Lamborghini.
I know, you’re not selling boats or cars, but I just wanted to illustrate the point.
The mom test
Now, what people say and what people do are often two very different things!
Getting them to say anything “real” is about as hard as being a parent to a child that just dyed their hair purple with yellow dots and asked “do you like it?” You kind of want to tell them no, but you also want to be supportive of their decisions — even if you don’t agree.
That’s exactly why you should never ask hypothetical questions like “Would you use this?” Instead, go concrete: “When was the last time you faced this problem?” or “How did you try to solve it last time, and what did that cost you?”
These stories reveal actual pain points and spending behavior, making it far easier to judge whether the issue is worth solving and whether people will pay.
Form factors (problem-solution fit)
Vindicated! The customer wants a solution to the problem that you want to solve! All done! Right? Well no, you’ve only validated that a problem exists, and that it’s a problem that’s worth solving (from a financial perspective).
The next step is to actually verify that hey want what you’re selling in the form that you’re willing to sell it! Because if you’re trying to sell stand-alone software at 15K, and the customer actually just wants an Excel plugin (for which it’ll be hard to charge 15K)…
Perceived value (and the cost 2 value trade-off)
Because even though a problem is worth solving, everything has a cost, an Excel plugin “feels” like it should be cheaper than custom software. So you’ll have to look at the spectrum of possible solutions that are able to solve a problem for this customer.
Personally, I would optimize for the highest “perceived value”. Meaning, a solution that feels like it should be expensive, that delivers a lot of value by solving a big problem. This is a value maximization strategy.
But then again, there’s also something to say for a strategy that prioritizes a market penetration strategy.
If you are a first/early mover on a new B2C product (imagine having a non-hallucinating, flawless ChatGPT at your disposal and getting traction with a B2C tutoring product that guarantees that your buyers’ kids will become little geniuses).
At a low cost, you might take the entire market, making you the incumbent and disrupting the entire education space.
Don’t forget about your margins
Form factors checked off, value equation balanced, then there remains but one thing to check… If you imagined a piece of software, and your customers will only buy a service, it still might knock your company flat on it’s back.
There is a cost associate with delivering your product, with selling it, with offering support on it. And it just might be that what would’ve worked as software won’t work as a service. Or that — at the reduced margins — you’d have to build a much larger company than you want to (we don’t all aim for 150 managers and a 1000-person total headcount).
Getting paid before you build
“How do I know if they’ll pay?”
The best way to know is to get some form of pre-commitment before you build. This could take the form of pre-orders with discounts, pilot contracts where a company agrees to test and pay for a limited version, or LOIs (Letters of Intent) that include real amounts. These signals move beyond words and show real willingness to invest.
If prospects refuse to commit cash up front, it’s a warning sign that the pain may not be strong enough or that your solution isn’t yet aligned with how they want to buy. By testing early with committed cash, you avoid sinking resources into something that customers might praise in theory but never actually purchase.
On risk
To wrap up, let’s talk about risk. You might design a strong solution to a genuine problem, package it well, and price it fairly and yet customers could still walk away.
That’s because every new purchase carries hidden costs. Buyers weigh the fear of making a bad choice, the embarrassment of backing the wrong product, or the risk that something unexpected undermines their professional credibility. These psychological and reputational risks can be just as powerful as price or features in blocking adoption.
In conclusion
Without validation, you’re not building. You’re gambling. Every founder should pause before writing code or spending capital and make sure they have concrete signals from the market.
That means working through a simple but powerful checklist: pinpoint the real pain, confirm it’s an impact problem that costs money, explore how customers actually want it solved, and test with committed cash before scaling!
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